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SCCER – Mobility

Can carsharing further increase the acceptance of electric mobility?

Electromobility is considered to play a central role in the decarbonisation of mobility, provided that the electricity is generated from renewable sources. While northern countries such as Norway, Iceland or Sweden already have a market share of more than 10% of the new car sales for electric vehicles (fully battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids) and are thus leading the way, the figure for Switzerland is less than 6%. If only the fully battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) are considered, this figure drops to below 4%.

In the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research – Mobility (SCCER – Mobility), which is funded by Innosuisse, the ZHAW INE team has investigated the question of whether people who have experience with carsharing display characteristics that are conducive to the acceptance of e-mobility. To this end, participants in the Swiss Household Energy Demand Survey (SHEDS) were placed in a decision-making situation: either to buy a car if they do not own one, or to replace their own car within one year. This was followed by several sequential-stated-preference questions like preferred car size and car type (gasoline, diesel, hybrid, plug-in-hybrid or fully electric).

Clearly, the above graph suggests that there might be a significant effect of having carsharing experience on the car type choice. However, as many variables could have an effect on this distribution, e.g. carsharing users living in cities with favorable conditions for buying an electric vehicle, variables related to socio-economics, mobility characteristics, attitudes and values were included in a binary logistic regression model to account for these confounding effects.

The regression analysis suggests that there is indeed a significant effect of having carsharing experience on the car type choice decision, with people who have carsharing experience being less likely to prefer a gasoline or diesel car.

This study thus argues that carsharing experience might be a lever for further increasing the diffusion of electric vehicles as carsharing experience could foster a more sustainable mobility lifestyle, including electric vehicles.

The results will be presented at the Forum on Integrated and Sustainable Transport Systems in Delft – Netherlands on 3-5 November 2020.

Our projects

Automatisiertes Fahren im Freizeit- und Tourismusverkehr

Wie autonome Fahrzeuge die Schweizer Tourismusindustrie revolutionieren könnten.

Freizeitaktivitäten spielen in der heutigen Gesellschaft eine immer wichtigere Rolle. Wesentliche Treiber für diese Entwicklung sind u.a. die zunehmend frei verfügbare Zeit, sich verändernde Arbeitsformen, das wachsende Angebot an Freizeitaktivitäten und generell sich verändernde Lebensstile. Mittlerweile nimmt die Freizeitmobilität in der Schweiz den grössten Anteil am Gesamtverkehr ein, noch vor Arbeit und Ausbildung und der Grossteil der Fahrten wird dabei mit dem MIV zurückgelegt. Dieser Trend könnte sich durch die zunehmende Automatisierung innerhalb der Mobilität weiter verstärken.

Im Rahmen eines vom ASTRA finanzierten Forschungsprojektes über die Auswirkungen des automatisierten Fahrens in der Schweiz, hat sich das ZHAW INE in einem Teilprojekt mit der Frage beschäftigt, welches Potential automatisierte Fahrzeuge im Freizeit- und Tourismusverkehr der Schweiz haben könnten und mit welchen Auswirkungen auf das Verkehrssystem diesbezüglich zu rechnen wäre. Die Einschätzungen basieren dabei grösstenteils auf Expertenmeinungen, welche in einer Interview-Reihe im Sommer 2019 zusammengetragen wurden.

Mögliche zukünftige Anwendungsformen

Verschiedene Studien wagen einen Blick in die Zukunft und zeigen auf, welche Anwendungsformen automatisierter Fahrzeuge im Freizeit- resp. Tourismusbereich möglich wären (siehe dazu Cohen und Hopkins, 2019 oder Bainbridge, 2018):

  • Individualisierte Stadtrundfahrten: Reisende könnten in automatisierten Fahrzeugen individuelle, nach ihren Vorlieben geplante Sightseeing-Touren unternehmen. Künstliche Intelligenz bietet zudem die Möglichkeit, die Routen gemäss den persönlichen Präferenzen (erkennbar über Schnittstellen zu Social Media Plattformen, Fotogallerien auf dem Smartphone, etc.) individuell zu planen. Anstatt in einer Stadt mehrmals dieselbe, monotone Stadtrundfahrt zu machen, bieten automatisierte und individualisierte Stadtrundfahrten das Potenzial, um sich sein eigenes, einzigartiges Erlebnis zu schaffen.
  • Mehrtagestouren: Reisende könnten vermehrt von A über B nach C auf einer individualisierten Mehrtagestour (fernab von stark frequentierten Hauptstrassen) reisen. Eine solche Tour zu buchen wäre dabei so einfach, wie heutzutage die Buchung einer eintägigen Ausflugstour. Diese «Rennaissance» der Road Trips könnte zudem zur Erschliessung neuer Kundengruppen (z.B. alte und gebrechliche Menschen oder Junge ohne Führerausweis) führen.
  • Private Rückzugsorte: Automatisierte Fahrzeuge könnten neu als private Rückzugsorte fungieren und daher mit bestehenden Angeboten (z.B. Ruhezonen in Flughäfen, Stunden-Hotels, etc.) konkurrieren. Vermehrtes Reisen durch die Nacht würde möglicherweise dazu führen, dass Hotels weniger Übernachtungen verzeichnen würden.
Gehört dieses Bild bald der Vergangenheit an? Sightseeing Bus vor dem Grossmünster in Zürich (Quelle: www.zuerich.com)

Potentialabschätzung für die Schweiz

Trendrecherchen zeigen, dass die Reisetätigkeit von Inländern (für Ferienzwecke) innerhalb der Schweiz in den letzten Jahren tendenziell abgenommen hat, wohingegen vor allem die Flugreisen ins Ausland stark zugenommen haben. Da sich dieser Trend nach Einschätzung der Experten auch in Zukunft weiter fortsetzen dürfte, bleibt es fraglich, wie stark die Tourismusindustrie durch automatisiertes Fahren letztlich profitieren würde. Das grösste Potential für die Schaffung neuer und innovativer Angebote besteht daher sehr wahrscheinlich bei ausländischen Touristen, welche durch automatisierte Mobilitätsangebote ihre Reisen individuell und gemäss ihren persönlichen Präferenzen planen und gestalten könnten (z.B. individuelle automatisierte Stadtrundfahrten). Neben dem urbanen Raum könnte insbesondere auch der alpine Raum durch automatisierte Mobilitätsangebote an Attraktivität gewinnen – einerseits durch die gesteigerte Erreichbarkeit, andererseits durch die grössere Flexibilität resp. Unabhängigkeit von zeitlich fixierten Fahrplänen des ÖV.

Digital-affine Touristen stellen die grösste Potentialgruppe für automatisiertes Fahren im Freizeit- und Tourismusverkehr dar (Quelle: epa/keystone)

Schlussfolgerungen

Die Haupttreiber in der Freizeit- und Tourismusindustrie werden nach wie vor das touristische Leistungsangebot und die Preise bleiben und nicht das automatisierte Fahren. Entscheidend wird jedoch sein, wie automatisiertes Fahren in den verschiedenen Raumtypen für den Freizeitverkehr in Wert gesetzt wird. Diesbezüglich sind zwingend massgeschneiderte Lösungen zu erarbeiten, welche auf den jeweiligen Kontext angepasst sind und sämtliche externen Gegebenheiten (im direkten Umfeld von Verkehr und Transport) mitberücksichtigen. Es wird daher auch im Freizeitverkehr nicht das allgemeingültige Patentrezept für automatisiertes Fahren geben, sondern diese müssen stets den jeweiligen Gegebenheiten und Erfordernissen der unterschiedlichen Raumtypen angepasst und entsprechend ausgestaltet werden – im kontinuierlichen Dialog mit sämtlichen betroffenen Akteuren.

SCCER-Mobility

SCCER Mobility Annual Conference 2019

Over 150 professionals working in the field of efficient mobility technologies, vehicle components and mobility behaviour gathered at ETH Zürich to discuss the state-of-the art in sustainable mobility and its future pathways.

The MobINE team from ZHAW presented three posters relevant for the sustainable transformation of the Swiss mobility system.

One of the key messages and impressions from the event can be summarized as the need to increase the focus on behaviour related research, especially concerning the uptake of new mobility services such as Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), carsharing and pooling, automated vehicles and their integration into the public transport network.

Poster Session at ETH Zurich

Further information about the presented posters can be found on the following webpage: https://www.sccer-mobility.ch/p_supporting_measures/Annual-Conferences/AC2019/

SCCER-Mobility

The Swiss mobility system and its interactions

The current Swiss transportation system is still far from climate neutral. In order to accelerate the transformation to a sustainable and carbon-neutral mobility system, we propose an overview of system agents and their interactions to better understand the current trends and dynamic behavior of policy interventions. As such, we identified five core agents as the government, economy, society, spatial structures and institutions through a set of semi-structured expert interviews. By utilizing concept maps and causal loop diagrams we further integrated subcomponents of each agent into a holistic and connected framework, enabling the qualitative assessment of feedback loops. We use the example of battery electric vehicles and evaluate policy measures and trends on their potential impact on adoption and CO2 emissions.

The following figure displays these interactions within a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD), which has been drawn with the software Vensim.

These CLD brings our mental models to paper and helps structuring thought processes as well as simplify the complexity of real systems to the most important parameter.

Swiss Transport Model

Picture 1 of 1

Within this diagram, various important feedback loops are present, most notably the reinforcing effect of financial incentives by the government and investment into marketing and infrastructure by the economy. The society’s choice of mode strongly depends on these actions as well as on the increasing willingness to reconsider mobility through increasing customer base of sustainable mode options. Institutions, the like of media and research associations, also shape the perception of the respective mode and thus willingness to reconsider ones mobility. Education, which falls under the institutional agent, could accelerate the transformation through increasing the awareness of environmental consequences as well as new and sustainable working structures (e.g. home office, mobility management within companies). Lastly, the ongoing trend of urbanisation increases mobility demand yet offers the possibility to adopt more sustainable mode options like electric cars that have favourable conditions in dense areas as opposed to conventional fossil-fuel based cars.

The work has been described in detail within our working paper that will be available soon – stay tuned!

INTEND

Research agenda for the future transport system

The mobility system is about to change in a fundamental way. Technological innovation, political decisions and new mobility concepts as well as social and economic trends lead to a system transformation. As the future transport system will differ from today, research has to be adapted to upcoming requirements of this new system. Therefore, the overall aim of the INTEND project was to provide a new and holistic research agenda for future EU transport research.

The research approach pursued in this research project included the following main work steps and methods:

  • Desk research and experts consultation on trends in mobility and transport to identify potential future game changers.
  • Formulating hypotheses on the evolutionary development of the transport system and verification in an online survey with European transport-related experts.
  • Developing a sketch of the future transport system.
  • Elaborating a transport research agenda with guidelines and research priorities for future EU transport research.

Sketch of the future transport system

Summarizing results of the trend analysis in mobility and transport as well as the perspectives of experts on the future of mobility, we developed a sketch of the future transport system that will be fundamentally different from the current system state.

Key findings:

  • Autonomous driving technologies are expected to dominate the future transport system with an implementation first in cargo/freight applications and in urban rather than in rural areas.
  • Fundamental changes are expected in engine technologies by electrification of conventional drivetrains.
  • IT-based solutions are expected to enable intermodality, shared mobility and MaaS services on a large-scale.
  • Little potential is seen in revolutionary concepts (e.g. Hyperloop One).
  • Drones are considered as a niche technology, which will rather be implemented in cargo/freight transportation than in passenger transportation.
  • Adaption of regulatory frameworks for emerging technologies (e.g. autonomous vehicles) is currently missing.
  • Internalisation of externalities will be crucial for a sustainable transport system.

Future transport research agenda

Based on the sketch of the future transport system as well as identified gaps and blind spots in today’s perspective on what is relevant for the future mobility system, we developed a research agenda with relevant future research fields on four dimensions with different time horizons.

Key findings:

  • Potential rebound effects of technological innovations – especially with regard to emerging technologies (e.g. autonomous vehicles) and new mobility services – need to be considered and prevented.
  • An energy system transformation is needed with 100% substitution of fossil through renewable energies.
  • A growth-critical thinking is needed to relieve the resource system, thus recent paradigms considering growth as precondition for competitiveness and wealth need to be replaced by new and sufficient concepts.
  • A cultural turn in transport system development is needed with a shift from quantity of mobility towards quality.
  • To enable disruptive and innovative solutions, bottom-up research needs to be promoted (instead of top-down strategies for research).

Conclusions

  • Shaping the transformation of the transport system to cope with the predicted trends and developments will be the main issue in the future.
  • R&D will play a key role, as it is crucial in analysing and understanding the problems, developing solutions as well as enabling transformation.
  • Funding for R&D is the political instrument of directing innovation to induce a fundamental transformation of the prevailing system.

Publications

Linkt to Deliverables, Papers and Presentations: https://intend-project.eu/publications/

Link to Whitepaper on Researchgate: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329322189_Future_transport_research_agenda_Guidelines_for_a_forward_looking_transport_sector

Project partners

This project has received funding from the European Union‘s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 769638.