In the frame of the RACE2050 project, where INE is a partner, an online survey concerning Wild Cards of the European transport industry was established in January. “Wild cards” are sudden, unexpected and random events in the history and nature, which have a very low probability, but cause substantial changes similarly to a joker in a deck of cards. With the help of experts wild cards for the European transport industry were identified. The discussions and analysis of wild cards included reasons, impacts and awareness on them as well as their possible occurring times.
281 experts actively participated in the survey. For each wild card participants submitted their views on several important aspects: the likelihood of occurrence in different time-frames, the impact on different industry segments (including the time till full impact is reached), the breadth of the effect (from local to global), the vulnerability of each industry sector to the event and the importance for decision makers to get prepared. Finally, participants submitted their ideas regarding weak signals that may hint at a growing likelihood of each wild card.