A brainstorming session on wild cards and on the development of the European transport industry was held in a cooperation with the EU FP 7 project “RACE 2050” (Responsible innovation agenda for Competitive European transport industries up to 2050) in Winterthur, Switzerland on 9th of October 2013.
RACE2050 aims for developing scenarios for the future of European transport industry. The industry’s competitiveness and the key success factors for a sustainable growth by 2050 will also be analysed.
“Wild cards” are sudden, unexpected and random events in the history and nature, which have a very low probability, but cause substantial changes similarly to a joker in a deck of cards. With the help of experts wild cards for the European transport industry were prepared. The discussions and analysis of wild cards included reasons, impacts and awareness on them as well as their possible occurring times.
The most relevant wild cards from the perspective of the experts were:
- Energy Crash
- Kilometer (fuel equivalent) – allowance
- Beaming cargo / Replication with the help of 3D printers
- High efficiency transport
- Governments go bankrupt