I just had a look at the daily up-date of the indicator-system introduced in 1. Let me try to distill the main findings out of the bunch of results.
First we obtain the four indicator-designs for INDPRO (industrial production index)
Design 1 (red line) is lagging, designs 2 and 3 (green/blue) are coincident, design 4 (brown) is leading.
- The quarter-to-quarter designs (q-t-q: red/blue) are still sloping down (which means a deceleration of the INDPRO series).
- The month-to-month indicators (m-t-m: green/brown) seem to stabilize (on somehow lower levels):
- the gap between red and green (growth q-t-q vs. growth m-t-m) is narrowing
- the gap between blue and brown (cycle q-t-q vs. cycle m-t-m) is closing.
- Typically, at the onset of a recession, one expects the above gaps to spread, instead.
This figure suggests that the recent systematic decline observed in the INDPRO-series ( starting somewehere in mid 2015) might come to a due end.
And now for the GDP-system:
In contrast to INDPRO, the GDP-indicators are still marking a pronounced deceleration; but levels are higher/positive: the growth-designs (red/green) are still firmly positive; both cycle-designs (blue brown) entered negative territory, though.
Squeezing out the above mixed-bag:
- imminent recession unlikely (GDP is decelerating but growth is still positive)
- evidences for a stabilization of the recent INDPRO-dynamics (end of deceleration)
Investment tip? The share of risky assets in my portfolio slowly increases; the first time since almost two months.