Latest GDP-Release: not Really a `News’ (More of the Same)

Last Friday, the BEA released the Q3-2015 GDP-number. Here’s an up-date of the system of GDP-indicators introduced in 1 (section 5):


Designs 1 and 3 (red and green) are positive. Designs 2 (blue) and 4 (brown) emphasize the cycle-dynamics (over the secular trend). The cycle seems to be on a pronounced downward path since the start of the year but the secular trend still dominates (red/green are still positive). The industrial sector  currently inhibits growth, see 1 (section 3).

A closer look at Design 1 illustrates the main effect of the latest GDP-release:


The down-slope was engaged prior to the Q3-2015 release: the latest number confirms the general tendency. In summary: not really a `news’.


Technical note: small revisions of the above indicator series (when compared to 1, section 5) are due to

  • Data revisions
  • Re-estimation of filter coefficients (I re-estimate coefficients whenever a new GDP-number is released: this is kind of `worst case’ in terms of revisions).
    • In practice I’d recommend re-estimation of filter coefficients at a yearly frequency.

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