Recession Ahead (Part II)?

In yesterday’s entry 1 I posted a new daily indicator. I deliberately overemphasized the business-cycle in its design. What does this mean, you may ask? The following graph  compares yesterday’s indicator, blue line, with a (new daily) `neutral’ indicator, red line, which tracks `growth’ of the industrial production series (the business-cycle is not overemphasized):

indicator

Growth as measured by the `neutral’ indicator is not negative, yet.

  • One can notice that the spread between both indicators is opening gradually i.e. the cycle drags down.

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