I noticed, recently, worries about the possibility of an up-coming recession in the US, see 1 (and the accompanying puzzle 2). It’s been a long time since my last entry on the topic… Sufficient time, indeed, for the business-cycle to eventually complete. And sufficient time for me to work on a new mixed-frequency extension of the MDFA, 3. As fruit of these efforts let me here share today’s up-date of the new daily real-time indicator.
- This indicator targets industrial production which is on decline in the US.
- The cycle is artificially magnified over the secular trend i.e. this indicator deliberately overemphasizes the business-cycle.
- I’ll post our `neutral’ design (no overemphasis of cycle) in a subsequent entry.
- All filters are asymmetric real-time designs (revisions are solely due to historical data being up-dated along vintages)