I'm on the way to the `New World' for a 2-week trip (doing progress on two interesting papers). I just received latest data from the `Contributor' and I wanted to up-date the indicator introduced in round 2 of my live-tutorial 1. It is a real-time design for the Euro-Area, based on DG-ECFIN data (9 series) and targeting GDP (bandpassed). I take the opportunity to baptise the newly proposed system of indicators (`Indicator-Chunk') the EURI, in allusion/reference to the USRI, of course.
My current main `blogger'-interest is devoted to the recently launched `live tutorial', see 1 and 2. However, one should keep the eyes wide shut to the world. When stumbling across Jim's latest post on Econbrowser it was impossible, for me, to ignore some earlier SEFBlog posts like 3, 4 , 5 , 6, 7,8 about "there being a new recession knocking at the door". The following two links 9 and 10 proposed by Jim (I invite to go through) let these earlier SEFBlog entries appear in a soft background-light. A look at the freshly up-dated USRI completes the romantic picture/outlook (a lot of links in this entry, I know...).
According to Econbrowser the US-economy has "taken a favorable turn", see 0. The important piece of information is: "A variety of data suggest an improving labor market". This is the right place/moment to plug-in some advertisement banners for the USRI:
Last month I published a graph that I received from a SEFBlog-reader and contributor, see 1: it was about a new leading indicator for the Euro Area. Here's the up-dated figure: it confirms last month's outlook i.e. the (well-known) `Coin is flat. The current downturn in the Euro Area has reached its minimum: from now on the negative pressure on the economy should continuously relax (conditional on survival/viability of the entity called `Euro Area').