Sergey Smirnov sent an interesting study on the performance of various established as well as new indicators for the US as well as for Russia.Sergey is Deputy Director of the‘Development Center’ Institute of the Higher School of Economics, Moscow and his paper can be downloaded from his site. Since it is a well established fact that internet links are likely to break sooner or later I also provide a direct link to his working paper WP2_2011_03.pdf on SEFBlog (downloaded with Sergey's permission...). Here's my short feedback Feedbacksergey.pdf.
In a recent blog entry 1 I discussed several US indicators, including famed ADS-index. I commented: "The `cryptic' ADS-index
hosted by the Philadelphia FED is unremittingly on the zero-mark since two years
now: ads_2yrs.pdf. As such there is not much to be gained from ( a
Today, the July-release of the CFNAI relaxed slightly: cfnai_august2011.pdf. Piger's recession probabilities for May (publication lag of two months) remained flat at 3%: this result contrasts with the fairly scary 21.8% - for May - published by Chauvet, see my recent entry (where it is suggested that things aren't possibly as bad as felt).